The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm. As of its 7 p.m. EST tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea was associated with a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Rafael expected to form Monday and possibly enter the Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. What happens next?

A tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend or early next week in the Caribbean, NHC forecasters say.